Down over two percent since last Friday. All three assets were down simultaneously again. Correlations just got worse. The decision to move away from bond into stocks last week was relatively a good one, but going to cash would have been better. Obviously the portfolio has shifted a bit so the strategy rebalances midweek. This…
Month: February 2021
Portfolio on 2.19.21
Down nearly a percent and a half for the week. All three assets were down simultaneously. Correlations are obviously not negative. Volatility is down in stocks. It’s up in bonds and gold. So the portfolio moves strongly into stocks. It’s an interesting choice as a flight to safety, especially when stocks fell this week as…
Can Your Grand Children Be Billionaires?
One of the finest perks of creating this blog has been conversing with people from all over the world. I’m an American, but about half of my readers are not. People from eighty nine different countries have read this blog. And lots of readers from those countries have reached out through email or on twitter.…
Portfolio on 2.12.21
Up about a third of a percent for the week. Volatility has cooled off and the portfolio is back to a fairly “average” position. On February 12th, the strategy rebalanced to: 56% SPY , 28% TLT , 16% GLD , 0% Cash The test of the automatic update didn’t go well. I’ll get there, but…
Portfolio on 2.5.21
A bit calmer, up 0.86% for the week. Interesting that bonds have increased, mostly coming at the expense of gold and cash. The “defensive assets” are still providing a headwind though. On February 5th, the strategy rebalanced to: 38% SPY , 38% TLT , 19% GLD , 5% Cash I’m hopefully two weeks away from…
Trend Following is Hot Air
Finance strangely views randomness very differently than other academic fields. In physics, gas molecules behave randomly. They could be moving any direction at any speed. You’re not going to predict them with much accuracy. However, when you group them together and measure the properties of the gas collectively, the behavior doesn’t seem random any longer.…