When Ed Thorpe played blackjack to beat the casinos at their own game, he did it by strategically betting into “good decks” and staying away from bad decks. Can you apply this same idea to investing by investing into good markets, and staying away from bad ones? I believe you can, which is why Geometric…
Category: Strategy
Portfolio on 11.30.21
If you’ve been paying attention, the last three trading days have been interesting to say the least. Volatility is popping in all assets. Correlations are flipping more negative. The portfolio was fairly focused in stocks for November, which was nice as stocks had been doing well and bonds and gold not so much. But that…
Portfolio on 9.20.21
Lots more volatility today. The portfolio has stayed in stocks because while the market has been falling, it’s been doing so slowly, with little volatility. Stocks and Gold have recently had far higher volatility, and have shown a tendency to be fairly correlated with stocks, so the portfolio leaned towards equities. But today changes that…
Portfolio on 7.20.21
A bit of volatility arrived this week, leading to a portfolio calling for a far lower stock position. Interesting, the up today was larger than the down yesterday. We don’t care if volatility is up or down, so even though today was a good day in stocks, the higher volatility is a warning sign that…
Portfolio on 6.18.21
The decision last week to go heavy stocks and no bonds looked pretty good for half the week. Stocks were down, but they were down less than everything else. Then the Fed started talking. I honestly didn’t pay much attention to what they said, but its clear the market did as everything switched soon after.…
Portfolio on 6.10.21
I should have put this out a few days ago, but better late than never. The portfolio has moved pretty aggressively over the last few weeks away from bonds, and it’s worth discussing. Correlations between bonds and stocks are quite high right now. As we know, treasury bonds aren’t paying out much with the 30…
Portfolio on 5.12.21
I said I would still do updates when things got interesting and the market has certainly been interesting lately. The prior week was a good one. But there were a couple days where everything went up simultaneously. I said in a recent post, this makes me nervous and can sometimes lead to problems. Those problems…
Portfolio on 3.4.21
Down over 1.26% since last Friday and 1.37% since last Thursday. The correlations are just so bad right now. All three assets were down again. Positions spent most of the week on the verge of calling for mid-week rebalance, but didn’t cross the 10% threshold until today. This market reminds me quite a bit of…
Portfolio on 2.25.21
Down over two percent since last Friday. All three assets were down simultaneously again. Correlations just got worse. The decision to move away from bond into stocks last week was relatively a good one, but going to cash would have been better. Obviously the portfolio has shifted a bit so the strategy rebalances midweek. This…
Portfolio on 2.19.21
Down nearly a percent and a half for the week. All three assets were down simultaneously. Correlations are obviously not negative. Volatility is down in stocks. It’s up in bonds and gold. So the portfolio moves strongly into stocks. It’s an interesting choice as a flight to safety, especially when stocks fell this week as…