Which part of a train is always moving backwards while the train is moving forwards? And why is this part of the train absolutely critical to ensuring a successful and safe journey? Take a look at this train and think about it for a minute before reading further. Moving Backwards While Moving Forwards The answer…
Another Year and a New Venture
It’s been another year, another anniversary for this blog, and what a years it’s been. Eighty-three more posts. Two podcast interviews. Thousands of new readers. Many new friends. A good year, but a very strange year. At this time last year nobody truly knew what was on our horizon. For many of us, we were…
The Greatest Geometric Balancers: Renaissance Technologies, Part I
Renaissance Technologies is the ultimate Rorschach test in the investing world. Factor investors think they are the best at implementing factors. Machine Learning advocates think they are the best at applying machine learning. Day traders think they are the best day traders. Trend followers think they are the best trend followers. Operations people think they…
Portfolio on 3.4.21
Down over 1.26% since last Friday and 1.37% since last Thursday. The correlations are just so bad right now. All three assets were down again. Positions spent most of the week on the verge of calling for mid-week rebalance, but didn’t cross the 10% threshold until today. This market reminds me quite a bit of…
Invest Like a Pronghorn
Pronghorn antelopes are the fastest animal in the world. I know what you’re thinking, cheetahs are faster. Not really. What is Fastest? Well speed is a distance travelled per time. Miles per hour. Meters per second. But of course this is an instantaneous measure. If we’re running a race, the winner has the highest average…
Portfolio on 2.25.21
Down over two percent since last Friday. All three assets were down simultaneously again. Correlations just got worse. The decision to move away from bond into stocks last week was relatively a good one, but going to cash would have been better. Obviously the portfolio has shifted a bit so the strategy rebalances midweek. This…
Portfolio on 2.19.21
Down nearly a percent and a half for the week. All three assets were down simultaneously. Correlations are obviously not negative. Volatility is down in stocks. It’s up in bonds and gold. So the portfolio moves strongly into stocks. It’s an interesting choice as a flight to safety, especially when stocks fell this week as…
Can Your Grand Children Be Billionaires?
One of the finest perks of creating this blog has been conversing with people from all over the world. I’m an American, but about half of my readers are not. People from eighty nine different countries have read this blog. And lots of readers from those countries have reached out through email or on twitter.…
Portfolio on 2.12.21
Up about a third of a percent for the week. Volatility has cooled off and the portfolio is back to a fairly “average” position. On February 12th, the strategy rebalanced to: 56% SPY , 28% TLT , 16% GLD , 0% Cash The test of the automatic update didn’t go well. I’ll get there, but…
Portfolio on 2.5.21
A bit calmer, up 0.86% for the week. Interesting that bonds have increased, mostly coming at the expense of gold and cash. The “defensive assets” are still providing a headwind though. On February 5th, the strategy rebalanced to: 38% SPY , 38% TLT , 19% GLD , 5% Cash I’m hopefully two weeks away from…