If you haven’t noticed already I’ve added a new set of numbers at the top of the blog. I’ve linked the strategy composition to the blog to update live as the market moves. You don’t have to wait until the weekend any longer to see where the portfolio is heading. Now I post this info…
Month: August 2019
Portfolio on 8.23.19
Down a third of a percent for the week. Still doing a good job keeping the volatility down in the portfolio as the rest of the market goes crazy. I’m a bit surprised the strategy increased the stock allocation for next week. However, the correlation between bonds and stocks is about as negative as it…
A Grand Unified Theory of Market Behavior
In 2013 the Nobel Prize committee gave the economics prize to two academics with fundamentally opposite beliefs.1 On one side they gave Eugene Fama the award for his work developing and expanding the efficient market theory. And on the other side, Robert Shiller won the award for effectively disproving the efficient market theory. If you…
Portfolio on 8.16.19
Up 1.3% this week. The portfolio reached new highs three days this week, while the stock market mostly floundered. The strategy is working as expected, nearly following the S&P 500 on the way up (June and July), and holding steady when the market turned back down. On August 16th, 2019 the strategy rebalanced to: 38%…
Portfolio on 8.9.19
Up three quarters of a percent for the week, including Monday. The portfolio is almost identical to the midweek rebalance on Monday, except for the addition of some cash. The cash reduces the overall draw down potential, as the assets are all fairly volatile right now. On August 9th, the strategy rebalanced to: 46% SPY…
Portfolio on 8.5.19
I’ve been toying with the idea of creating a hybrid of the weekly strategy and the full strategy, one that would rebalance mid week if the portfolio moves enough to justify a change. The drawdown in the weekly strategy is higher than the full strategy because the environment can change dramatically over 5 days, leaving…
Portfolio on 8.2.19
Down about a one and a quarter percent this week. Not the best, but certainly better than the S&P 500. Not surprisingly, the portfolio moved out of stocks and into bonds on Friday. During the up move in June and July the strategy aggressively preferred stocks, but has slowly moved back to a normal composition.…