Many financial professionals would find the premise behind this post reckless. I’m not going to argue with them. Trading a 401k plan can be a terrible idea. It’s certainly foolish if you’re just using your gut or poor financial signals to time the trades. But would Geometric Balancing work within the confines of a 401k? …
Category: Strategy
Portfolio on 2.14.20
Up just under a percent again for the week. I’ll be honest, I’m very confused by the behavior of this market. Luckily, the strategy doesn’t seem to be. It’s tracking right along with the S&P 500 year to date. On February 14th, 2020, the strategy rebalanced to: 48% SPY , 36% TLT , 16% GLD
Portfolio on 2.7.20
Up 0.9% for the week. An up and down week for most assets, but my portfolio was stable. The worst day was down -0.07% and the best day up 0.41%. Slow and steady wins the race. On February 7th, 2020, the strategy rebalanced to: 44% SPY , 40% TLT , 16% GLD
Portfolio on 1.31.20
The winning streak comes to an end, down a quarter of a percent for the week. The streak still looked ok until the last few hours today. For the month, the strategy was up about 2.7%. The S&P 500 ended up flat. We rode the market up in the first half of the month and…
Portfolio on 1.24.20
Up 0.14% for the week. The winning streak continues, while the market took a pause. I thought my volatility signal would spike, and while it did go up, it didn’t really jump. The strategy lightened up on stocks some, but not aggressively. On January 24th, 2020, the strategy rebalanced to: 56% SPY , 28% TLT…
Portfolio on 1.17.20
Up 1.1% for the week. For 9 weeks, the largest weekly pullback has been a minuscule 0.15%. This actually isn’t that uncommon, as a similar run occurred last summer and last winter too. On January 17th, 2020, the strategy rebalanced to: 64% SPY , 24% TLT , 12% GLD
Convergence Time
There’s a saying about prediction models, garbage in/garbage out. All true. This begs the question, how long do you have to sift through garbage until you actually find something useful? The answer depends on what you are looking for. I’m often asked about the “look back” periods in Geometric Balancing. Many investment models use months…
Portfolio on 1.10.20
Up two thirds of a percent for the week. It’s getting to be a bit of a broken record, but not much change the the portfolio again. On January 10th, 2020, the strategy rebalanced to : 64% SPY , 20% TLT , 16% GLD
2019 Year in Review and Portfolio on 1.3.20
We’ve closed another year, did Geometric Balancing perform like a fancy expensive hedge fund? Did it produce an exceptional return, with little volatility? Let’s find out. Actual Geometric Balancing Results The results below show actual returns from my account. This is the same portfolio I update and publish each week1, and the same strategy that…
Portfolio on 12.27.19
Up nearly nine tenths of a percent for the week. Could we have asked for a better December? On December 27th, 2019, the portfolio rebalanced to : 68% SPY , 20% TLT , 12% GLD