Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. Albert Einstein How can only three assets plus cash produce such amazing returns? Well, all three assets complement each other in way other assets just can’t. They work so well together, there really isn’t any reason for anything else. Simplify as much as possible,…
Portfolio 9.20.19
Up nearly a half percent for the week. I’m glad the week was up, but really the portfolio didn’t do well, as bonds and gold had great weeks, but the strategy didn’t own much of them. It’s not perfect. But it did beat the S&P500 by over a percent, which is nice. On September 20th,…
Portfolio on 9.13.19
A good week to dump bonds. And did we ever dump them. Bond volatility rose and so did correlation with stocks. Luckily some of our dumping came before (and during) this weeks sell off. The strategy was down a 1.3% for the week. Nearly the worst week of the year. But I suspect most strategies…
Portfolio on 9.10.19
I wasn’t paying attention yesterday, but the portfolio moved more than 10% in its SPY and TLT composition. Bond volatility is rising, and maybe more importantly, the correlation with stocks is rising too. Based on my prior rule, I should have rebalanced yesterday, but didn’t get a chance to do so until until today (I…
The Origins of Passive Investing, and Its Future.
Is passive investing going to destroy the stock market? There has been much chatter on the internet lately about the perils of passive investing and its ability to ultimately take down the stock market. Michael Burry, of the big short fame, recently stated he believed passive investing was a bubble, and ultimately would cause the…
Portfolio on 9.6.19
Up 0.4% for the week. It’s looking like the market might have bottomed. We’ll see, I’m not making a prediction either way. If it does bottom, expect the strategy to under perform the S&P 500 for a few weeks. Historically it has always lagged a bit on the initial rebound. Remember, the unlevered portfolio only…
Geometric Balancing Live, Portfolio on 8.30.19
If you haven’t noticed already I’ve added a new set of numbers at the top of the blog. I’ve linked the strategy composition to the blog to update live as the market moves. You don’t have to wait until the weekend any longer to see where the portfolio is heading. Now I post this info…
Portfolio on 8.23.19
Down a third of a percent for the week. Still doing a good job keeping the volatility down in the portfolio as the rest of the market goes crazy. I’m a bit surprised the strategy increased the stock allocation for next week. However, the correlation between bonds and stocks is about as negative as it…
A Grand Unified Theory of Market Behavior
In 2013 the Nobel Prize committee gave the economics prize to two academics with fundamentally opposite beliefs.1 On one side they gave Eugene Fama the award for his work developing and expanding the efficient market theory. And on the other side, Robert Shiller won the award for effectively disproving the efficient market theory. If you…
Portfolio on 8.16.19
Up 1.3% this week. The portfolio reached new highs three days this week, while the stock market mostly floundered. The strategy is working as expected, nearly following the S&P 500 on the way up (June and July), and holding steady when the market turned back down. On August 16th, 2019 the strategy rebalanced to: 38%…